The Democratic Strategy

This Democrat doesn't know what to do.

The Democratic Party is in a bit of a pickle. As their primary race drags on and the two camps in it become increasingly embittered, John McCain's moderate demeanor makes his selection by the Republicans look absolutely genius. He's at least palatable to many (if not most) Democrats and independents, and so he becomes the "better than X" candidate. Meanwhile, conservatives unimpressed with McCain have plenty of time to look at the Democratic camp, see nothing they like, and resign themselves to the Republican nominee. And, of course, there's the problem that Florida and Michigan could end up voting Republican in the general election out of frustration that their primaries didn't count. Thus, despite a nationwide Democratic tide - and almost certain gains in both houses of Congress - McCain could very well win the presidency by being everyone's second choice.

So what's a Democratic bigwig to do? It's clear that the party higher-ups will have to deal with this mess in one way or another, since neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is at all likely to amass enough pledged delegates to take the nomination outright. Either the superdelegates or some back-room negotiations will decide the Democratic nominee for president, and they will be trying desperately to pick a winner.

There's one thing we can bet on, though: they won't make their move until after the Pennsylvania primary. They'll be watching the state very closely for trends that might indicate a shift in public opinion. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he will have proven that he can win big states, swing states, and most importantly Hillary's core of blue-collar white Democrats; he will have shored up all of his weak points in one go. If that happens, Hillary's done. Either the superdelegates will declare openly for Obama to put him over the top, or a high-level delegation will approach Clinton and offer her something in exchange for bowing out.

However, Hillary's much more likely to win Pennsylvania than Obama, seeing how she's leading him by double digits there according to most polls, not to mention that the state is full of her natural consistency. In a month a lot can change, but the state will probably go to her. If she wins in a blowout (2 to 1 or better), it'll indicate that something (perhaps the Wright controversy) has hurt Obama, pushing voters away from him. That will drive superdelegates to Clinton's camp. Obama would still lead in delegates and the popular vote, so the Democratic leadership can't actually ask him to step aside, but if he loses big in Pennsylvania and then loses a state he should have won (like, say, North Carolina) then expect superdelegates to endorse Clinton in droves. This is pretty much Hillary's only shot at the nomination.

Much more likely is that Hillary will win Pennsylvania by about the same margin as Ohio. Maybe a little less, maybe a little more, but if she doesn't lose and doesn't utterly dominate, then we're back at square one. In that scenario the other states will most likely go as predicted as well, and Obama will enter the convention leading in the popular vote and the delegate count - but not by enough to win outright - with supporters on both sides ready to jump ship if their candidate isn't nominated. Here are the options for the Democrats as I see 'em:

Option one: a back-room deal with Hillary to get her to step aside and endorse Obama before the convention. She'll need some pretty hefty compensation for that, though. If she's interested in the Veep slot on the ticket, they will have to give it to her no matter what Obama wants. More likely, she's not interested in the job, and they will have to come up with something else. Senate Majority Leader is probably the best option, assuming the Democrats continue to hold the Senate (and you'd be silly to bet against that); another option might be the promise of a Supreme Court nomination from the Obama administration. The drawback to this plan is that no matter how persuasively Clinton endorses Obama, her most ardent supporters will still vote for McCain either as punishment for the party or because they have demonized Obama so much that they can't see him positively. That problem is averted if, and only if, she wants to be Vice President.

The reverse of this situation, a back-room deal to get Obama to step aside, is not an option, for two major reasons. First, as noted above, you can't ask the front-runner to quit the race, and Obama knows this. Second, part of Obama's platform is transparency in government, and doing some power deal under the table is exactly the sort of thing he's against. He doesn't seem like the type to violate his espoused principles, and even if he were, such a deal would forever spoil his anti-corruption image. He has no reason to take a brokered deal, and every reason not to.

Then there's option two: let the convention happen. Let the superdelegates make up their own minds, try to compromise on the Florida and Michigan delegations, and hope for the best. Then the Democrats can at least say that everyone played by the rules, that the candidate was chosen fairly through the system they knew they were using when they started. Of course, the drawback is that hoping for the best rarely results in getting the best. No matter the outcome of a contested convention, a whole lot of people are going to be unhappy with the results, and the two months and change between the convention and the general election probably isn't enough time to heal those wounds.

Finally there's option three: think outside the box. Come up with a compromise candidate. If they do this it will almost certainly be Al Gore. He's got the experience and the credentials. He's got a Nobel Peace Prize. He's got authenticity. He's got name recognition. And he's got the advantage of being a new challenger for whom the GOP won't yet have a strategy.

Nominating Gore would be a tough trick to arrange, but it's certainly possible. First Gore would have to be persuaded to run (probably not too hard; he was up for it eight years ago). Then the first ballot at the convention would have to pass without anyone getting a majority; this could be managed by having a big block of superdelegates vote for Gore. After the first ballot the pledged delegates are no longer bound to their candidates, so the task is to woo them over; at this point it would make sense to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations to give them a say in the nomination. Gore would have to make a very strong case for himself, but he's got raw materials to work with as good as anyone's. Both Obama and Hillary would need to be given something in compensation; Obama would be the ideal choice for Veep (a Gore/Clinton ticket looks too familiar to make a case for "change" in Washington), and Hillary could be given a powerful Cabinet slot or the Senate Majority Leader position. With both candidates endorsing Gore there would be no lingering bitterness, so the party could unite around him and ride the current Democratic tide to victory.

There are two big flaws to address here. You're still invalidating the primary results, although the case is that since Gore wasn't on the ballot to begin with you're not actually going against the will of the voters. Both candidates would be less than happy with the arrangement, and they would have to voice enthusiastic support before any word of their displeasure got out to their supporters. The other major problem is this headline: "After Long Nomination Battle Between Woman and Black Man, Democrats Nominate White Guy for President." That's one of the reasons to put Obama on the ticket as Veep, but it'll still rankle a few people. Like everything in politics, trying to nominate Gore would be a gamble.

But in this crazy race, it might be worth a second look.

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